DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/21 11:07
All Grains Lower at Midday
Corn is 7 to 8 cents lower, soybeans are 16 to 18 cents lower, and wheat is
12 to 16 cents lower.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is sharply lower with the Dow down 935 points. The
dollar index is 840 points higher. Interest rate products are higher. Energies
are firmer with crude down $2.20. Livestock trade is weaker with cattle the
downside leader. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $70.
Corn trade is 7 to 8 cents lower to open the week with selling so far with
harvest likely to expand significantly this week, while exports will remain in
focus with nothing on the daily wire for corn. Ethanol margins will be tighter
with the crude weakness. Basis has remained fairly flat with steady action
expected to start the week. Weekly export inspections were OK at 755,111 metric
tons. Weekly crop progress is expected to show steady to weaker conditions with
maturity and harvest progress ahead of normal. On the December contract, trade
has support at the $3.62 20-day moving average, with the recent high at $3.79
Soybean trade is 16 to 18 cents lower at midday with light two sided action
turning to broad selling, with weaker spread trade as we remain near multi-year
highs while further fresh sales of 132,000 metric tons to China, 132,000 to
Pakistan, and 171,000 to unknown. Meal is $3.00 to $4.00 lower and oil is 75 to
85 points lower. The ral remains in the lower end of the range ahead of South
American planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while Argentine
farmer selling remains slow. Export offers continue to get tighter in
availability as well. Weekly export inspections remain solid at 1.310 million
metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show steady to lower conditions, and
maturity ahead of normal. The November chart has resistance at the upper
Bollinger Band at $10.46 3/4 which is also the fresh high with support the
20-day at $9.73.
Wheat trade is 12 to 16 cents lower with spillover pressure from the row
crops this a.m. and little fresh wheat-specific news. The dollar remains steady
vs. the ruble with little change in world export competitiveness. Kansas City
is at a 68-cent discount to Chicago with spreads narrowing again after the
Friday reversal, while Minneapolis is back to a 22 cent discount with wider
action to start. Wheat-drilling progress should expand across the Plains short
term with OK moisture for most. Weekly crop progress should show winter wheat
planting near average, with spring wheat harvest nearly wrapped up. Weekly
export inspections were a bit softer at 469,939 metric tons. Kansas City
December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.07 1/2, and support is the
20-day at $4.72.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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